A Memorial For My Previously Perfect Best Album Prediction Formula
This totally worked until that goddamn Arcade Fire enraptured the codgers in the Grammy voting pool.
1. Is there a “jazz” album nominated?
In any real (or fake) sense of the word. If so, the winner is Herbie Hancock (2008), Norah Jones (2003) or Tony Bennett (1995). The only exception in the last fifteen or so years is Santana beating Diana Krall in 2000, and at this point Latin-rock instrumentalists commercially might as well be “jazz.” Also, Ray Charles’ 2005 winner featured Krall and Jones.
2. If not, is there a country album nominated?
If so, the winner is Taylor Swift (2010), Robert Plant & Alison Krauss (2009), The Dixie Chicks (2007) or The O Brother Where Art Thou? soundtrack (2002) - and Ray Charles also has a country past. Santana beat the Dixie Chicks in 2000, but we already discussed why that would have been foreseen, especially considering the next tier.
3. If not, is there an established rock icon nominated?
If so, the winner is Robert Plant & Alison Krauss (2009), U2 (2006), Ray Charles (2005), Steely Dan (2001), Santana (2000) or Bob Dylan (1997). “Jazz” certainly made up for whatever degree of rock iconhood the Dan lacks.
4. If not, who sold the most?
Pretty rare the fogey genres don’t get a single album on the list, but Outkast’s 2004 win, Celine Dion’s 1997 and Alanis Morrissette’s 1996 win came for albums that eventually received diamond certification - Alanis being the biggest seller of the ’90s.
Until the GODDAMN ARCADE FIRE RUINED EVERYTHING, the only serious exception to the formula since 1995 was when Lauryn Hill beat Shania Twain in 1999. Curious to see if this is a similar burp or a bonafide GAME CHANGER, even if I never get around to actually watching this show. You failed me, Lady Antebellum.
Last time I looked (while researching a post for work about movies unlikely to be nominated for awards this year), the only awards ceremony to acknowledge Damon and Paul Greengrass’ post-Bourne Gulf War meditation was the Kids’ Choice Awards, which nominated Damon for Choice Movie Actor: Action/Adventure (he lost to Channing Tatum for GI Joe). I checked again after reading Alex’s Kids’ Choice-related bit of trivia, and learned that Damon was since nominated for Actor Of The Year (for Zone, Hereafter, and True Grit) by the Central Ohio Film Critics Assocation. Sadly, he lost to James Franco (for Howl, Date Night, 127 Hours and Eat Pray Love).
John Powell was also up for Composer Of The Year at the World Soundtrack Awards for having scored Zone, How To Train Your Dragon, Knight And Day, and Ice Age: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs (he lost to Alexandre Desplat of New Moon, Julie & Julia, Fantastic Mr. Fox and Ghost Writer fame). But according to IMDb, the Kids’ Choice Awards remains the only ceremony to single out any aspect of Green Zone - which I have not seen - for individual commendation.